Hey Hot Potatoes,

Welcome to the latest edition of the Hot Potato Newsletter. Listen up, I’ll be the first to say that if someone told me a few years ago we were going to a plant-based only restaurant, I’d tell them to jog on. But nowadays (and truthfully), the vegan restaurant scene is way more impressive and the choices out there have greatly improved. Going out with a vegan (I’m mad I know), I’ve become well accustomed to this world and have seen first hand how much the plant-based game has changed. And whilst there has been a lot of change, the question today is, has it been positive or negative? In this edition we’re going to deep dive into the plant-based sector, see how the industry is faring and look into whether or not it’s here to stay for the longer term.

In today’s email: Has plant-based dining had its day or is it just getting started?

Read Time: Approx 7 mins

Current state of play.

Source: Food Manufacture

You could say the plant-based sector has exploded in recent years, with there now being a huge variety of vegan food on offer across a range of different cuisines. Consumer trends have been changing too, where we’re seeing health and environmental factors as important considerations for consumers when making food choices.

Key Points:

1. Variety: First and foremost, if we look at the plant-based sector as a whole over the past five years, there has been a lot of growth in the space. I remember trying to go on a date a few odd years ago with a vegan, and my only option pretty much was to get a table at Mildred’s. Fast forward to today and I’m spoilt for choice… we’ve got the likes of Oowee, Gauthier Soho, Mallow, Holy Carrot and Club Mexicana to name a few. There has been great innovation in the space with many newcomers on the scene… dating vegans got easier!

2. Consumer Trends: According to research by Finder, the UK saw a significant increase in the number of vegans, highlighting in 2023 they represented 4.7% of the adult population. That’s 1.1 million people becoming vegan last year alone, increasing the overall total to 2.5 million adults. This surge is attributed to increased awareness of health, environmental factors, and ethical benefits of veganism.

3. Plant-Based Influencers and Chefs: As per the research by Finder, it suggests that half of Gen Zs could be eating a meat free diet by 2025. These trends go hand in hand with the rise of plant-based influencers and advocates like the BOSH boys, Ben’s Vegan Kitchen and EarthlingEd.

So, it is abundantly clear the industry has grown A LOT in the last few years. With trends in younger audiences becoming more health and environmentally conscious, it looks like demand could become stronger in the future. On a personal note I’ve been impressed with the vegan offerings out there, having recently visited Tofu Vegan in London, I loved my meal!

Challenges in the sector.

Source: The Guardian / Restaurant Online

Whilst there has been a great deal of positivity and growth in this sector, we can’t shy away from the fact the industry is facing mounting challenges.

Key Points:

1. Niche Category: Whilst the sector has undeniably seen high growth, it’s still considered niche and is not yet mainstream. Like the rest of the hospitality industry, this sector has struggled with restaurant closures, but demand particularly for solely vegan establishments has been weak. Customers want to go to restaurants where they can have a choice of both vegan and non-vegan foods and not be restricted. The likes of Neat Burger have closed half their estate, Flower Burger have exited the UK market, and the popular Vurger Co had to close it’s doors; a telling sign of the current struggles.

2. Changing Eating Habits: Since the start of COVID our preferences, attitudes and priorities towards foods have changed. Paul Askew, owner for the last 9 years of The Art School in Liverpool and Barnacle, believes people have now adopted the attitude, ‘we’re here for a short time and not a long time’; meaning some people who were previously strictly vegan are now willing to dip their toe into pescatarianism or dabble in the odd meat dish.

3. Saturated Market: Charlie Watson, co-founder of both Oowee Vegan and Diner, highlighted that plant-based food availability has dramatically increased since their launch in 2018. So whilst the demand for plant-based meals hasn’t necessarily decreased, the option to have a plant-based dish anywhere is more likely, with most restaurants providing decent vegan options on their menu. Friendship groups of both vegan and non-vegans wanting to eat together prefer to choose restaurants that satisfy all dietary needs, and these are now quite easily found. This has meant plant-based only restaurants aren’t surviving or are having to pivot and add meat, fish, eggs and dairy to their menu.

We can see that there are some very good vegan restaurants who can make it work with a plant-based only offering, but in general the sector is a tough one to survive.

How the sector is changing.

Source: The Guardian / Restaurant Online

There is no doubt the sector will continue to change in terms of attitudes, technological advancements and food preferences, where some are opting for more vegetable whole food based dishes vs plant-based meats.

Key Points:

1. Plant Forward Eating: We know that customers want choice, so certain vegan brands have decided to adapt their strategy by introducing meat to their menus, the likes of Clean Kitchen come to mind. Kate Nicholls, the Chief Executive of UKHospitality, says “plant-forward eating” is the direction we’re headed, where businesses are moving towards broader menus to cater for all customers. Plant protein in meat dishes are also becoming more of a focal point on menus to retain their vegan appeal.

2. Technological Advancements: I know it sounds bonkers and futuristic, but there are companies out there like Redefine Meat who are really changing the game for plant-based meat. Using cutting-edge technologies, artificial intelligence and methods from material science to additive manufacturing, they are creating a range of super realistic plant-based meats. Marco Pierre White was so impressed by Redefine Meat, he introduced these gourmet plant-based new-meat dishes across his steakhouses.

3. Vegetable Dishes at the Forefront: Back to Charlie Watson, what did he highlight? Well, it seems the demand for vegetable inspired dishes are much stronger compared to plant-based meats. Oowee noticed sales for their new cauliflower bites are now outselling their popcorn chik’n, emphasising another trend whereby people just want simple and honest food.

Choice is key and as with any other sector, technology is driving change. With companies like Redefine Meat creating some seriously close alternatives to real meat, what do you think? Would you try it?

What success could look like - Eleven Maddison Park.

I don’t know if any of you have seen the show on Netflix, ‘You Are What You Eat’? Well if you haven’t, this show is a scientific experiment to explore how certain foods impact the body. Identical twins over eight weeks change their diets; one twin eats a regular diet and one twin eats a vegan only diet. Now I won’t spoil the results, but this show brought Daniel Humm to my attention, a Chef who runs the Three Michelin Star restaurant Eleven Maddison Park in New York.

For those of you who don’t know who he is and why I am bringing this to light… Daniel Humm did something pretty bold for a Three Michelin Star restaurant. Daniel and his team went from serving meat and fish to serving an entirely plant-based menu. Yes, you’ve read that correctly, a Three Michelin Star restaurant creating only vegetable inspired dishes. For a restaurant that was best known for their lavender-honey glazed duck, I am totally blown away by this!

When the restaurant almost went bankrupt during COVID, Daniel Humm wanted to reopen in a completely different and re-imagined way. Daniel recognised our current consumption of meat isn’t sustainable, particularly in the US where the average person consumes 285 pounds of meat a year. It’s not good for the environment and producing meat at that scale means what ends up on your plate is poor quality too. So, with the restaurant almost down and out, he felt he had nothing to lose, took the plunge and made the switch.

Although it was a fairly brutal start, receiving scathing reviews from critics and guests, Daniel persevered, and with that, Eleven Maddison Park kept it’s Three Michelin Stars and is thriving! The moral of the story, in my opinion is, if you focus on quality ingredients and a bold vision, even if it’s just plants, you can succeed!

So in this week’s edition, we’ve looked at what’s been going on in the plant-based sector, the challenges, how it’s changing and the inspirational story of Eleven Maddison Park. With that, I want to know what bold move you have been wanting to make in your business? What’s stopping you?

What’s next? Well it’s unquestionable that the hospitality industry is brutally tough; it is widely recognised as one of the most challenging sectors to be successful in. That’s why we will be looking at hospitality brands who faced challenging moments, turned their troubles around and became success stories. Find out who they are and how they did it in next week’s edition.

Thanks for reading and don’t forget to subscribe to stay updated weekly on all things hospitality!

Bon appétit,

Max Shipman, Editor-in-Chief, Hot Potato

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